The Chinese market for industrial robots has become the largest in the world. In 2014, the market grew by 56%, reaching the level of 57,000 units, in 2015 - another 20%, to 68,600 units. For comparison, the total sales volume of all European countries in 2015 was only 50,000 units, and North America, Japan and Korea - 36,400, 35,000 and 38,000 units, respectively.
In 2014, President Xi Jinping made a speech at the Chinese Academy of Sciences about the upcoming robot revolution, which will transform China and then the whole world. The Chinese government sets the goal of accelerating the introduction of Big Data, cloud computing, Internet of Things technologies in Chinese companies and focusing on the creation of “intelligent factories” (intelligent manufacturing).
Substantial government funds from the central government are allocated for research and development, and financing of projects related to robotics. In the province of Guangdong alone, the local government allocated $ 150 billion to re-equip factories with industrial robots, as well as the creation of two centers engaged in the development of intelligent solutions in the field of robotics and automation technologies - centers for the production of industrial robots.
In Guangdong province, 1950 companies are equipped with robots, primarily those engaged in the automotive industry, the manufacture of household appliances, electronics, the textile industry, and the production of building materials. China is the world's largest industrial robot market. According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), starting in 2013, the Chinese market for industrial robots has become the largest in the world. In 2014, the market grew by 56%, reaching the level of 57,000 units - a quarter of the world market, in 2015 - another 20%, to 68,600 units. For comparison, the total sales of all European countries in 2015 amounted to only 50.1 thousand units, and North America, Japan and Korea - 36,400, 35,000 and 38,000 units, respectively.
The 2016 IFR forecast for the results is even more impressive: China's sales grew by 31% compared to the previous year, China is reaching annual sales of 90,000 units - slightly less than the whole of Europe and North America together, 54,200 and 38,000 units, respectively. By 2019, IFR predicts an increase in annual sales of industrial robots in China to 160,000 units - almost 40% of world production, and this is already more than in all of Europe, North America and Japan combined.
The average annual growth rate of sales in China in 2017-2019 is projected at 21%, while the growth rate in Europe will decrease to 8.3%, in North America it will reach 6.6%, in Japan it will drop to 4.2%. and in Korea will remain virtually unchanged - within 4.8%. Researchers at Citi, an American investment bank and Oxford University, in their report, The Future Is Not What It Used to Be, estimated the payback period of robots involved in welding in the automotive industry. According to their calculations, from 2010 to 2015, the payback period decreased from 5.3 to 1.7 years, and by 2017 it amounted to 1.3 years.
In terms of sales of industrial robots, the automotive industry competes with electronics. For example, the world's largest electronics manufacturer, the Taiwanese company Foxconn Technology Group (富士康 科技 集团), which uses proprietary industrial robots, plans to produce 10,000 robots per year in the PRC and by 2020, 30% of its Chinese factories will be robotized. According to IFR forecasts, by 2020, China will have an average of 150 robots per 10,000 industrial workers - three times more than in 2015. For comparison, in the United States in 2015 this figure was 176 units, Korea - 531 units, Japan and Germany - 305 and 301, respectively.
If you look at how many times the number of industrial workers in China is higher than in the USA, Korea, Japan and Germany and make an adjustment for the growth rate of robotization in these countries, in absolute terms, by 2020, over 60% of the world's robotic production will be concentrated in China, and in the USA - no more than 15%. One can imagine how this will affect the global alignment of forces.
Creating your own robotics in China
Of the 160,000 industrial robots that IFR forecasts will be sold in China in 2019, about 100,000, according to the thirteenth five-year plan of the PRC, will be manufactured by Chinese companies - a quarter of world production. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the PRC, the annual production of robots in the country in 2013 was about 9,500 units, in 2014 - 17,000, in 2015 it was close to 33,000 units. In order to reach the planned level of annual production of 100,000 units by 2020, it is necessary to maintain an average annual growth rate of 24.6%. In reality, everything happens much faster.
China is actively acquiring high-tech companies that occupy leading positions in robotics worldwide, which significantly accelerates the development of its own robotics. For example, a few months ago, the largest Chinese manufacturer of household appliances, Midea Group Co. (美 的 集团), bought for $ 5 billion one of the four leading global manufacturers of industrial robots, the industry leader in Europe - the German company Kuka AG. In February, Midea Group Co. bought a controlling stake in the Israeli company Servotronix, specializing in automation technology. To obtain technology, Chinese companies form all kinds of alliances with industry leaders. Before purchasing Kuka AG, Midea Group Co. entered into a joint venture with the Japanese company Yaskawa, as well as Kuka AG, one of the four leading global manufacturers of industrial robots. Galucz (компаний 集团), the world's largest manufacturer of microwave ovens, has entered into a strategic partnership with the third big four companies - the Japanese Fanuc.
China is developing its own robot manufacturers. Thus, the Ningbo Techmation listed company on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (宁波 弘 讯 заним оборудования), which manufactures equipment for the plastic industry, organized the subsidiary robotics company E-Deodar (伊 雪松 机器人), which produces robots at prices 20-30% lower. than their foreign competitors such as ABB or Japanese Kawasaki. The number of Chinese companies like E-Deodar is constantly growing.
On the sidelines of the annual session of the All-China People's Congress, Mr. Xin Guobin, Deputy Minister of Industry and Information Technology of the PRC, said that there are currently over 800 robotic enterprises in the PRC with a production volume of about 72,400 robots in 2016. The development of artificial intelligence in China will create even greater prospects for the development of robotics. At the end of March 2017, a joint venture of the largest American virtualization software developer VMware and Chinese high-speed computer manufacturer Sugon Information Industry Co., Ltd. (中 科 曙光), Zhongke Ruiguang (中 科 睿 光 软件 技术 有限公司 有限公司), has introduced the new Cloudview SVM Edition V3, a new cloud-based operating system on the Chinese market, the rights to manufacture key technologies which are wholly owned by China.
Almost at the same time, Alibaba Group, on its cloud infrastructure, offered the general public intelligent solutions to help implement centralized data management in the workplace. Businesses can rent these services from the Alibaba Group on an hourly basis. The rapid growth of China's robotics industry resembles the boom in the development of electronic commerce in the early 2000s. China will reformat world production.
According to the United Nations Statistics Division, in 2015, China accounted for more than a quarter of world industrial production, China in terms of industrial production overtook the United States by 37%. The large-scale robotization of the automotive textile, chemical industry, logistics, electronics, food, household appliances, which China conducts, will significantly reformat the world production. Midea Group Co., which bought the German Kuka AG a few months ago, is investing $ 725 million in the construction of smart factories in several Chinese cities, with a total of 1,500 robots planned to be used.
And this is just the beginning. Using technology from Kuka AG, Midea Group Co. will become a serious player in the future of the Chinese and world robotics market, and “smart factories” will be only part of its products. “Smart factory” is not only the installation of cheaper and more efficient robots on the production line; much greater opportunities lie in integrating industrial robots with real-time data from consumers and an automated logistics system. To increase productivity, improve quality and speed up logistics, other manufacturers of household appliances plan to build smart factories - Haier (海尔 集团), Joyoung (九 阳 股份有限公司), Gree (珠海 格力 电器 股份有限公司).
Analysts suggest that the future lies with small “smart factories” that have enough software reprogramming to produce new products. Large-scale production, requiring hundreds of millions of investments to produce 5 or 10 million units of products, looks less attractive. In the next few years, the Chinese government plans to create a completely new industry, when robots produce robots and products are manufactured by automatic plants. Engaged in the robotization of its own industry, China will hone existing and create new technologies, using its main advantage - the largest market in the world. Without a market, any efforts to develop robotics remain at the R&D level. Perhaps this was one of the reasons why the German Kuka AG was sold to China and why the Japanese robotic giants are forced to share technology with Chinese competitors.
Ultimately, in China, the export of products will be replaced by the export of intelligent solutions in the field of robotics and automation technologies - the export of "smart factories", automated lines. The explosive growth of productivity will allow China to significantly reduce prices for its products and oust competitors from their traditional markets. A quarter of world production — the level that China reached in 2015 — could be half in a few years. A quantum leap in the development of China's industry will lead to the fact that entire industries of other countries are morally obsolete in a few years. Robotization in the PRC will completely reformat world production. China robotization and US re-industrialization.
In the next few years, the United States will not be able to accept the challenge of China regarding the introduction of robotic technologies. There are no robotic companies in the USA that would be world market leaders. Yes, and public opinion in favor of robotization has not yet developed. Under these conditions, all the talks of the US administration about re-industrialization, the creation of new jobs in the industrial sector can be countered by the immortal words of Winston Churchill: “Generals are always ready for the last war”. An open economy will not allow the United States to shut itself off from products manufactured in Chinese-made smart factories.
Window of opportunity for Russia
In Russia, robotics is developing mainly in the military-industrial complex. There is currently no serial production of industrial robots for civilian needs. Judging by Chinese standards, there is no market either. The re-equipment of Chinese industry based on robotics opens up new opportunities for Russian companies involved in the creation of software for robotic systems.
If Russian manufacturers want to develop, you can’t lock yourself in the domestic market and stay at the R&D level, you need to enter the Chinese market, as the world leaders in robotics ABB, Fanuc, Yaskawa and others did. It is important to understand that the window of opportunity will not be open indefinitely. The strategic course to create their own robotic industry, first of all, should be kept by the state. For example, in Germany, as part of the state program, a strategy called “Industry 4.0” is prescribed, but it is not yet clear how this strategy will be implemented without the industry leader - Kuka AG sold to the Chinese side.
In Russia, on February 14, 2017, an action plan (“road map”) of the “Technet” (advanced manufacturing technologies) of the National Technological Initiative (NTI) was approved. The amount of funding for the Technet roadmap under the STI will amount to 15.6 billion rubles in 2017-2019, of which 7 billion rubles are extrabudgetary funds. Against the background of investments in the robotics sector of the Chinese province of Guangdong - $ 150 billion, investments in the implementation of the Technet roadmap do not look encouraging. The expected results are not encouraging either: according to this plan, by 2019, the share of Russia in the global markets for Factory of the Future in the engineering and construction segment should be 0.5%, and by 2025 - 0.9%. The number of factories by 2019 is three, by 2025 - ten.
The leaders of Russia and China almost simultaneously in 2014 set tasks for the development of robotics. To date, China has more than 800 robotic enterprises with a production volume of about 72,400 robots in 2016, and in Russia during this time they have developed the Technet Action Plan (“roadmap”). The pace of implementation of the roadmap sets the competitiveness of Russian industry in the future, and without adequate government support, Russia will lose its robotic direction in the same way as civilian aircraft, which was left to the "invisible hand of the market," were practically lost.
Despite cheap labor in China, demand for industrial robots is constantly growing, because many European enterprises are transferring their production to China, and the level of salaries of Chinese workers is gradually increasing. According to forecasts, in 2014 the demand of Chinese industrial enterprises will amount to 32,000 robotic manipulators, which will make it the largest consumer of robotics in the world. In 2001, there were 3,500 robots in Chinese factories, but in the very near future, by 2015, there will be about 100,000. Based on this, China has increased its own production of industrial robots. Back in 2007, several Chinese companies presented their developments on robotic manipulators on the market at once.
One of the first companies to master the production of industrial robots was Siasun Robot & Automation Co Ltd in Shenyang from Shenyang. Now it is the largest manufacturer of industrial robots in China. They account for a third of all Chinese robots. Moreover, industrial robots are produced both for the domestic market, and for Russia, the USA, and Korea. The approximate cost of an industrial robot is 20-25 thousand dollars. New models of industrial robots are integrated with CNC machines that can perform several processes simultaneously. But, despite increased demand, Chinese manufacturers of industrial robots still use some key components from foreign suppliers, which may hinder the independent development of robotics in China.
Robotization and automation of production is supported by the Chinese leadership at the highest level, even despite the fact that industrial robots work instead of people, i.e. their use leads to massive reductions. Although, perhaps, robotization is the only way to build and maintain global leadership in manufacturing.
China has a large gender gap and a shortage of women. But Chinese companies Doll Sweet Dolls and EX Doll come to the rescue. They presented sex robots that can talk, play music and turn on dishwashers. In general, according to the assurances of the developers, to carry out part of the household duties.
Reporting 18+.
1. On the floor for the production of traditional sex dolls, customers can choose any parameters - height, skin color, breast size, eye color, hair color ... Just like a list of options for German automakers when buying a car. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
2. Eyes. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
3. But EX Doll’s ambitions are different: to produce dolls with artificial intelligence and make them so realistic that they can replace women, because in China there are 33.6 million fewer women than men. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
4. EX Doll produces 400 of these clever dolls, or sex robots per month, compared to ten in 2009. Although the multi-billion dollar China is a drop in the bucket. But everything is ahead. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
5. Now China, according to various estimates, occupies more than 80% of the global market for sex toys. More than a million people are employed in this field of activity, the turnover is about 6.6 billion dollars. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
6. Next year, EX Doll hopes to release more advanced models of sex robots with artificial intelligence technology, complex facial expressions and body movements, voice recognition systems and eyes that can monitor human movements. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
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14. Experts believe that technology is developing so rapidly, and people spend so much time in the virtual world that they simply fall in love with intelligent machines. It is believed that by 2050 sex between people will go out of fashion, and it will be replaced by sexual contact with robots. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
15. Today it looks absurd and perverse, but already in the middle of the 21st century such “relations” will not surprise anyone. (Photo by Fred Dufour):
The crowd of dancing robots on the streets of China is not the beginning of a robotic apocalypse, but an attempt to break the Guinness record in the category "The largest number of simultaneously dancing robots." However, some users are still confident that cute electronic men just train before capturing biological humanity.
In China, once again broke a record in the category "The largest number of simultaneously dancing robots." This time, 1069 electronic dancers entered the dance floor. Their name is Dobie, and they can not only dance, but also sing, box and kick in the style of kung fu, according to the Guinness Book of Records website.
YouTube users decided that cute robots can’t just dance. They definitely train the victory dance in case of victory in the robo-apocalypse.
"I won’t lie, it was cool, but for sure they will perform the same dance if they decide to destroy humanity."
“This is how robo-apocalypse begins !!! First, cute dancing robots, and soon giant robots will burst at your door and drag you, kicking and screaming, into the camps for "processing". And then do not say that I did not warn you. "
However, the demonstration did not go very smoothly: at least one of the dancing robots fell and jumped funny. It’s good that he didn’t topple his comrades, and that’s not the whole record for nothing.
Some commentators recognized themselves in a fallen robot. Or the same friend who always spoils everything.
“This is my inner introvert when my friends dragged me to the club.”
“There will always be one such guy ...”
1069 cute dancing robots - this is something that you must definitely look at least once yourself. You need to know what movements will be in fashion after artificial intelligence will eventually take over our planet.
But in fact, dancing robots can also protect humanity. As it happened in one of the series of the Evangelion anime: pilots from huge fighting humanoid robots needed absolute synchronization to defeat the monster, so they trained together for a long time and defeated the enemy with an excellent dance number.
The last record of 1007 simultaneously dancing robots was set only a year ago, by another Chinese company. But to be honest, the white and red robots are not dancing as impressive as the cute Dobies.
Yes, in the 80s, dancing robots were much more modest. But on the other hand, they caused even more enthusiasm among the audience.
Guinness records are much stranger than the joint dance of cute robots. For example, not so long ago, the Turk set a record for the shortest time in which. Prior to this, he was recognized as the fastest crusher of concrete blocks.
In October of this year, two important events related to China took place. China held a robot contest and massively bought German high-tech companies. If the robots of Chinese scientists caused surprise and delight among the audience, the purchase of 37 companies for $ 11 billion caused shock and fear among the German authorities.
Bionic Butterfly at World Robot Exhibition in China Photo: Li Wen / Xinhua / Global Look
China creates robots that begin to work instead of people, and in 10 years will become a leader in the production and sale of robotics worldwide. And all the main western manufacturers of robots will come under the control of the Middle Kingdom.
China is taking leaps and bounds into the age of robotics. The past robot contest is a vivid confirmation of this. Competitions were held between scientific institutes, military academies and defense enterprises. Chinese equipment rode, crawled and even ran. The designers of the country's main defense industry corporation Norinco (an analogue of the Russian Rostec) brought a four-leg biomorphic (animal-like) body. He was dressed in camouflage pants and forced to run off-road. One-on-one Chinese miracle was like the advanced development of Boston Dynamics (USA) - Wild Cat (Wild Cat). In Russian it would be called - "Lynx". By the way, a Russian biomorphic robot called "Lynx-BP" not only runs, but also shoots from its machine gun, and can also launch a couple of guided missiles. Together with the Chinese biomorph, various military transport platforms on a caterpillar and wheel base participated in the "parade of robots".
Until 2014, the development of robotics in China was chaotic. In June 2014, a ground-based robot research center was created at Norinco Corporation. He took control of all the development of robots, androids, neurotechnologies, artificial intelligence. Immediately after the opening, the first five-year plan was formed, according to which China will reach the level of the United States in terms of robotics quality in 2019. But perhaps our Asian neighbors will be able to do this even earlier.
In April of this year, the Chinese created a robot girl Jia-Jia with faux leather and looking like a model. A personal model can respond, move its eyes, blink and tilt its head. Around the same time, Hong Kong resident Ricky Ma created a robot - a copy of actress Scarlett Johansson. In addition to her mouth, her cheeks moved, and she winked during the conversation. She is far from an android with artificial intelligence, but the pace of Chinese robotics is impressive. The same "Scarlett Johansson" was assembled for 70% of the details from a 3D printer. This means that in the near future, China will punch robots, like latches, at 1000 per day.
In August of this year, the Chinese forced 1007 robots half a meter high to synchronously dance at once. At the same time, control was carried out from one smartphone through encryption technology. In addition to domestic entertainment, the robots of the Middle Kingdom are actively used in the service sector and public services. The customs of the three Chinese ports of Hengkwin, Chongshan and Gongbei enlisted 10 high-tech Xiaohai robots. They work with passengers around the clock, communicating in 28 languages, learn faster and can recognize the wanted criminals by their faces, instantly sending information to the police.
While China meets the needs of the domestic market, it will soon begin to supply robots around the world. Residents of Europe and North America will not even notice how in the near future domestic robots of local production actually turn out to be Chinese. Already today, China is actively buying up German large companies producing tomorrow's technology. Including - robots. The German government fell into a panic after learning that Chinese companies acquired 37 high-tech companies for a total of $ 11 billion in the first half of 2016 alone. And a year earlier - 39 German companies. In August, despite the resistance of Angela Merkel, the oldest German concern Kuka, the manufacturer of industrial robots sold for $ 6 billion to the Chinese Midea. When the Chinese decided to buy Aixtron, the largest manufacturer of microchips, in October, the German government "stood up", blocking the already approved deal. In the highest echelons of power, the EU was clearly fearful. After all, China is not interested in production itself, but in the scientific development and research of corporations in the field of microprocessors, biotechnologies, neurotechnologies, and robotics. Now the Chinese are negotiating the purchase of Osram, the largest lamp manufacturer in Munich. The company is known for its scientific developments, which are of most interest to the Chinese.
China’s takeover strategy for high technology is reflected in Xi Jinping’s statement. The chairman called for a “robotic revolution," and the government, in turn, promised generous subsidies. In Guangdong alone, nearly $ 200 billion was allocated for automation. According to the industry newsletter of the Shenyang Institute of Automation at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in 2001 only 3,500 industrial robots were used in the PRC, and in 2015 more than 100,000 machines were already used.
China is no longer interested in the copy model, they want tomorrow's technology, and for this you need to buy research with companies. For the first half of 2016, the Chinese absorbed German concerns almost every week, the British financial company Dealogic notes. There is no doubt that future developments in the field of robotics and biotechnologies will be used, including for military purposes.
But one should not expect classical military aggression from our peaceful eastern neighbor. The Chinese will enter every house without weapons. More precisely, good smiling robots will do it instead. The picture from the movie "I, the Robot" no longer seems fantastic when every resident has a home "iron pet" that helps in everyday life. According to experts, the first wave of household robotics will be at the beginning of 2020. In 2021-2025, the first mass production of home robots for personal use is expected. Chinese industrialists are betting on this niche.
In China, a program to help pensioners with robots is already being implemented. According to experts, in five years, robots will play a key role in caring for the elderly. In May, the Hangzhou Welfare Center launched the use of 80 cm Ah Tie robots to monitor patients. Machines are able to analyze the condition of older people and transmit information to doctors. Due to their technical capabilities, even without artificial intelligence, robots are able to collect all the information about the life of their owner and transmit to the manufacturer’s center. It is hoped that Chinese-style robotics will not turn out to be the same surprise for citizens as in the film "I, the Robot," when machines, on orders from a single center, forced their human hosts to obey.
